Mom was always right
I so enjoyed a news/finance article I read this morning.  It brought back fond memories. I could hear my mother’s voice.
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The article was in the US News and World Reports Money & Business section, entitled The 10 Worst Assumptions of 2008.  It read like I was sitting across the kitchen table from my mother again. She was a wise woman, always ran the finances at home, saw that we all had all that we needed, and more, even in tough times. She remembered “The Great Depression,” and perhaps that spectre stayed with her. She remembered her father-in-law, who was out of work for YEARS, and he cut the grass, on his hands and knees, with scissors. Over and over.  It needed to be cut, he had nothing else to do, he needed to just keep busy to keep his sanity, and perhaps, to get out of the house and away from a wife always saying, “Fred, go find a job” when there simply weren’t any for an immigrant who didn’t speak the language very well. Mom related that, as newly-weds, when the  paycheck came home each week, they divided the dollars into envelopes. Three dollars for groceries, four dollars for the rent, two dollars for utilities.  When the bills came due, the money was there to pay for it. They SAVED for any new items they wanted, or they did without. Plastic hadn’t been invented yet, or at least, not for the purpose that we’re immediately thinking of. Perhaps the Lux liquid caps were made of plastic then. This was 1935.
“The Good Old Days,” they called them. But we couldn’t see much good there. Wringer washers, hanging the clothes out on the line in the freezing cold? Not always having the newest, latest, fanciest, most expensive?  What the hell was so good about that?
Talk about your generation gap!
Anyway, the article lists 10 “financial assumptions” made in 2008, either by scads of individual consumers like you or me, or by those much higher up the “money chain.”  And here we are now, with 75% of the population wondering if they’re gonna get laid off from their jobs. (The other 25% are already not working, either by choice, are under age 16 or have already gotten their pink slip).
- Real estate values always rise over time. Well, we all believed that one, didn’t we? I remember, about 3 or 4 years ago, a young man that I worked with was trying to buy a house. He talked of having to really jump fast when a house in their price range came on the market, and bid higher than the asking price. What? Then bid higher again! And do it all so fast before really getting a good look at the house, the neighborhood, a condition report? Something’s wrong here. They did this maybe 10 times on different homes, but never won a “bidding war.”  Lucky, they were. And I heard this from so many, so it was common. Betting that the house value would rise.     Mom used to say, “If you can’t afford to lose, don’t bet.”
- The mighty consumer will keep spending.  This is based on the American way of continuing to spend, acquire, “keep up with the Jones” against all good sense, whipping out wallet and digging for a credit card in there somewhere that isn’t max’d out. We’ve all heard stories of folks with dozens of cards, and $50,000 of debt on them, and for what? They didn’t charge medical expenses so their kid could have life-saving surgery. They were charging expensive brand-name jeans at the mall, $300 sneakers for their kid, botox lip-fatteners and exotic vacations, for bragging rights at work. Spent more on haircuts than I do on car payments. I know of many who “card-surfed,” always changing their cards for new ones to stay inside that “for the first 6 months it’s interest-free.”  Doing this time and again apparently never rang any warning bells.  A whole way of life has been based on “I want it, I’ll have it, right now, no matter what. Damn the consequences – Full speed ahead”   The mighty consumer will keep spending – Boy we sure fell for that one.      Mom said to us when we were kids, and pointing at things in the store, exclaiming how much we wanted them, “You can WANT. You just can’t HAVE!”   Hmmm.
- A buyer will always emerge. Is this directly related to “There’s a sucker born every minute”?   I’ve heard it said so many times by so many people, “It’s worth XXXX dollars.” Yeah right. Bring me someone, right now, who will pay that much for this item. (A corollary to that is, “It’ll hold it’s trade-in value.”) This relates to the inflated housing market, selling your junk on e-Bay, whatever. It’s worth is what a genuine, in-your-face buyer will actually pay. Without that buyer with a wallet full of money willing to hand it over for your item, it’s worth is nada.     Mom used to say, “I didn’t spend all this time raising you for you to turn out this stupid.” She said that often.
- Banks will be careful with their money. Hehehe, this one is really funny.  Back in the day, you had to prove credit worthiness to get a loan. Remember? You had to bring in all sorts of paperwork to prove you had an income. Not just an income today, but what appeared to a stable income in the past, and one likely to continue. They looked at stuff like how long you were employed at the current job, how many different employers you’ve had over a given period of time, less being better. And they looked at how much you already owed. They were really concerned about your ability to pay them back what was due them. (And they applied even stricter standards with women!) Today, if you breathe, you qualify.   Once, long ago, something free was offered and one of my kids wanted it. Offer was limited to one per person. Kid sent in multiple names. I got offers of credit in the mail for Rose W…..  Ah, Rose was a wonderful one, half Standard Poodle and half whatever sort of dog got to my beautiful Standard one dark and stormy night.  But Rose apparently had good credit. You didn’t even need to be human to get offers from banks to float you a loan. Careful with their money – HA!!!  Mortgage brokers got paid on a commission basis, on how many loans closed. They didn’t give a rat’s ass if the buyer was out in the street 6 months later because they couldn’t make the payments.  And people were led down the garden path and MOST of them should have known better. If you don’t have enough extra money to buy a pair of roller skates, and some slick salesman says, “I can put you in this top-of-the-line SUV loaded with so much shit it’ll take you 6 weeks just to read the owner’s manual and figure out how to turn on the headlights,” and you don’t have sense enough to question the deal, then, well, some folks just get what they deserve. (They’re out now, stealing bicycles from schoolkids, so they can get to work; the fancy SUV is long gone).       Mom always said, “If it sounds too good to be true, it isn’t.”
- Don’t worry. The smartest guys in the world are working on the problem. Another silly one. An awful lot of really smart people can be led down that famed “garden path” if that’s where they want to go. People put on their own blinders, so they don’t see what doesn’t suit the scenario they wish to see. And smart people make big mistakes, because they are often put in a position where their genuinely human errors affect not only themselves, but a host of other innocent folk who have trusted them. No one is above making honest mistakes. And there’s many out there who aren’t honest.   And Smart doesn’t exclude Greedy and/or Selfish.  Mom taught us to think for ourselves. “So, if Joey jumps off a bridge, you’re gonna jump, too?”
- Technology is the solution. When I first heard this, it was more like, “To err is human, but to really foul things up requires a computer.”     Look back up at all the above. Mom said them all, and they probably all apply here.
- The feds will fix things. Oh, no, let’s not even go there. Locomotives used to have what’s called a Dead Man’s Switch or Brake, a device that, when the one in control no longer had control, everything was brought to a screeching halt, and everyone knew about it. Sadly, none of these devices were installed on the federal government, which continues careening about wildly until the whole country’s derailed.    My mother, and every other parent back in the day, taught us to take responsibility for our actions – and saw that we did so.
- There’s plenty of liquidity.   But only if the drain is stoppered up tightly. If is comes unstuck, you’re supposed to notice before all the dishwater drains out, or you got cuffed in the back of the head.  Didn’t anyone notice more outflow than income?
- Things will bounce back.  Yeah, probably true. There’s historical precedent. But in what time frame? And what are the consequences to individuals during the wait until that happens? Are we talking about losing our Premium Channels for 3 months? Or losing jobs, insurances, medical care, homes?  All that we’ve worked for, sacrificed for, over a lifetime? Age is a factor here, too. The average 17-year-old loses it all – he’s lost gas money and the price of getting into the movies this weekend.  A 60-year-old who has his pension go up in smoke, stock portfolio turn to water, and has 5 years to go before Medicare will cover his medical expenses and medicine costs may lose a bit more. And that 17-year-old has more time to wait it out, and recover.      Mom said, after a fall at age 88, “At my age, I just don’t bounce well anymore.”
- It can’t happen to us.   That’s the best one of all.  Not me!  “I didn’t think it would happen now, not to me” says every woman to her obstetrician. Heh!
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We should have left Mom in charge.




